Austin’s housing market is balancing between high supply and softer demand, with buyers gaining leverage as sellers adjust expectations.

Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for September 23, 2025.

The Austin real estate market continues to show the effects of a multi-year correction. As of September 23, 2025, there are 16,886 active residential listings across the metro, a 14.5% increase from the same time last year when 14,753 homes were on the market. This level of supply is just short of the peak set in June, when active listings hit 18,146. With nearly six out of ten listings (58.4%) experiencing at least one price reduction, the message is clear: sellers are still adjusting to today’s conditions, and buyers have more negotiating room than they’ve had in years.

From a demand perspective, the pending contract count sits at 4,081, which is 3.9% below last year. On a year-to-date basis, contracts are down 4.9% compared to 2024. That decline in buyer activity is important because it confirms that higher inventory is not being matched with stronger absorption. The Activity Index, a measure of how much of the market is under contract relative to supply, has slipped to 19.5%, down from 22.4% a year ago. This 12.9% year-over-year drop signals that the Austin housing market is leaning further toward buyers, even as new listings continue to pour in.

So far in 2025, there have been 40,497 new listings, a 3.4% increase compared to last year and 22% above the long-term average. The problem is that contracts have not kept pace, leaving a year-to-date gap of 7,167 more new listings than pendings. This gap is captured in the New Listing-to-Pending Ratio, which is currently 0.65 for the month of September. Put simply, for every 100 homes listed this month, only 65 have gone under contract. Over the full year, the ratio is 0.70, well below the 25-year historical average of 0.82. The lower the ratio, the more inventory builds, which shifts leverage toward buyers.

Months of Inventory now sits at 5.97 compared to 5.26 a year ago. That 13.5% increase translates to almost six months of supply, which places Austin in a balanced-to-buyer-friendly environment. For context, in 2021 the city was operating with less than one month of supply, one of the hottest seller’s markets on record. The fact that we are now sitting closer to six months highlights just how different today’s Austin housing forecast looks compared to the frenzied conditions of only a few years ago.

Sales volume has also cooled. There were 2,316 closed sales in September, bringing the year-to-date total to 22,883. That’s down 4.3% from the same nine-month stretch last year, although it still sits 5.5% above the long-term average. Adjusted for population, however, the picture is weaker. On a per-capita basis, Austin has logged 895 home sales per 100,000 residents this year, which is 22% below the historical average. This confirms that while raw totals look acceptable, demand relative to the size of the market is notably soft.

Prices remain well below peak levels, even as they stabilize. The average sold price in September was $558,657, which is an 18% drop, or $123,000 below the all-time high set in May 2022. The median price tells a similar story, currently at $430,000, which is down 21.8% from the $550,000 peak. Looking at momentum, today’s median is 8.5% below where it stood three years ago. For anyone measuring the long-term Austin real estate forecast, it’s worth noting that the city’s 25-year compound annual appreciation rate is 4.79%. If today’s median of $430,000 represents the bottom of this cycle, it would take roughly 66 months—or until early 2031—for the market to climb back to the previous $550,000 peak using that historical growth rate.

Not all parts of the market are behaving the same. The top 25% of homes by price have actually gained 3.6% year over year, with price per square foot up 1.5%. Meanwhile, the bottom 25% have lost 5.4% in value, with price per square foot down 2.4%. This split shows that higher-end homes are holding better, while affordability pressures weigh heavily on the lower tiers. Across the metro, 10 cities have posted year-over-year price increases, while 20 are still in decline.

Other performance indicators confirm the slower pace. The absorption rate—measuring sales relative to active listings—is 17.5%. Historically, Austin runs at about 31.8%, meaning the market is absorbing homes almost half as quickly as normal. The Market Flow Score, a composite measure of turnover and demand, is at 5.54 on a 0–10 scale. That is below the long-term average of 6.6, underscoring that the Austin housing market remains sluggish.

For buyers, today’s conditions are favorable. More inventory, widespread price cuts, and slower absorption mean stronger negotiating positions. Buyers can afford to be selective and patient, with less pressure to rush into offers. For sellers, the message is different: pricing competitively from day one is critical. With nearly 60% of listings already cutting prices, the homes that see activity are those that are the best-priced in their neighborhood and in strong showing condition. For investors, the opportunity lies in yield and timing. With values down more than 20% from peak, gross rent yields are improving, and the long-term outlook of nearly 5% compound appreciation suggests steady recovery potential. For real estate agents, today’s Austin market update reinforces the importance of guiding clients with data, not emotion. Whether advising on a price reduction strategy, setting expectations for showings, or explaining why offers are slower to come in, the data allows professionals to provide clarity in a market where headlines can be confusing.

Looking ahead, the Austin housing forecast depends on whether demand can catch up to supply. Mortgage rates remain a wild card, and population growth continues to provide a long-term floor for housing demand. But in the short term, inventory levels and absorption rates tell the story: Austin is firmly in a balanced-to-buyer market as we close out the third quarter of 2025.​